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Every quarter, our fund managers analyse trends in the global economy and financial markets. Read their views on the fourth quarter of 2023.
Macroeconomic environment
- If history is any guide, monetary tightening will eventually trigger a recession, despite the current resilience of economic activity.
- A more significant deterioration in the labour markets will be necessary for inflation to return to 2%.
- Rather than leaning towards further interest rate hikes, the central banks are contemplating a permanently tighter monetary policy.
Financial markets
- The indicators that traditionally characterise the start of a new bull market are absent from the rise in indices in 2023.
- Defensive quality stocks have suffered from the rise in long-term interest rates and are now attractive.
- The traditional link between the gold price and real interest rates seems broken.