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Every quarter, our fund managers analyse trends in the global economy and financial markets. Read their views on the fourth quarter of 2023.

Macroeconomic environment

  • If history is any guide, monetary tightening will eventually trigger a recession, despite the current resilience of economic activity.
  • A more significant deterioration in the labour markets will be necessary for inflation to return to 2%.
  • Rather than leaning towards further interest rate hikes, the central banks are contemplating a permanently tighter monetary policy.

Financial markets

  • The indicators that traditionally characterise the start of a new bull market are absent from the rise in indices in 2023.
  • Defensive quality stocks have suffered from the rise in long-term interest rates and are now attractive.
  • The traditional link between the gold price and real interest rates seems broken.

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